European gas prices retreated on Tuesday following a ramp-up in Norwegian production after recent plant outages.
Annual maintenance at the Troll A platform cut all of its 125 MMcm/d output from 26 August. The maintenance was initially scheduled to end on 7 September but has been extended several times since. Production is currently expected to be ramped up on 14 September, which was the main reason the European benchmark prices fell on Tuesday.
"The reason for the extended maintenance period at Troll A is that modification projects have taken longer than planned," said a spokesperson.
According to Energi Danmark, the market appears to have priced in the effect of the strike in Australia at least for now, but if it ends up lasting for a long time then further price jumps are possible.
TTF settled 3.4% lower at USD 10.91/MMBtu, while NBP saw a 3.6% drop to USD 10.85/MMBtu. JKM was flat on Tuesday, at USD 13.39/MMBtu.
Meanwhile, Henry Hub in the US surged on Tuesday by 5.2% to USD 2.74/MMBtu from falling production levels in the Permian Basin, a development that brought total output below the 100 Bcf/d level — a rare occurrence late in the summer of 2023.
This added to the dip in feedgas flows to Freeport reported over the weekend. According to Leo Kabouche, LNG market analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects, the decline in feedgas over the weekend suggests that at least two Freeport LNG units, or trains, were not taking any gas.
In addition, a report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that he US overtook Qatar and Australia in LNG exports in the first half of 2023.
US exports averaged 11.6 Bcf/d in H1’23, up 4% year-on-year. Australia exported the world’s second-largest volume of LNG in 1H23, averaging 10.6 Bcf/d, followed by Qatar at 10.4 Bcf/d.
“The increase in US LNG exports mainly resulted from Freeport LNG’s return to service as global LNG demand remained strong with continuing growth, particularly in Europe,” the EIA said on Tuesday.
In oil, Brent rose 1.6% to USD 92.06/barrel – its highest this year – and WTI by 1.8% to USD 88.84/barrel.
Front-month futures and indexes at last close with day-on-day changes (click to enlarge): Time references based on London GMT. Brent, WTI, NBP, TTF and EU CO2 data from ICE. Henry Hub, JKM and API2 data from CME. Prices in USD/MMBtu based on exchange rates at last market close. All monetary values rounded to nearest whole cent/penny. Text and graphic copyright © Gas Strategies, all rights.