In continental Europe, the February TTF futures contract was down 3.9%, from USD 14.99/MMBtu on Friday to USD 14.41/MMBtu. In local currency, the price was well below the significant EUR 50/MWh threshold, briefly breached at the turn of the year, at EUR 47.33/MWh. Prices continue to sag in early trading on Tuesday.
In the UK, NBP fell by 4.0%, from USD 15.38/MMBtu to USD 14.76/MMBtu, maintaining a premium over TTF of around USD 0.35-0.45/MMBtu.
Europe’s resilience comes at a price, however – an unusually rapid depletion of storage reserves, not least because chilly and calm weather is boosting heating demand while limiting the amount of wind power in the electricity fuel mix.
Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that European Union storage is now down to just under 70%, a steep fall from over 95% at the start of the heating season.
While a winter shortage looks unlikely, at this stage, replenishing reserves over the spring and summer will be costly and challenging. The forward curve shows prices remaining at around current levels for much of the rest of 2025.
Meanwhile, data from Wind Europe indicates that while current wind power levels are high because of storms, much of the autumn and winter so far have seen wind power at unusually low levels, with the percentage contribution sometimes as low as single figures. A typical level in normal times is around 20%.
In Asia, the JKM LNG benchmark remained much less volatile than European gas, down just 0.5%, from USD 14.36/MMBtu to USD 14.29/MMBtu. The relative movements saw a convergence in prices, with the TTF-JKM spread at minus USD 0.13/MMBtu.
In the US, Henry Hub maintained yesterday’s early recovery after the steep fall on Friday. A rise of 9.5% saw the price back up to USD 3.67/MMBtu, a cent higher than Thursday’s close.
Large swathes of the US are in the grip of a winter storm, which has killed several people and left many without power. Several states have declared a state of emergency. More snow is on the way.
Crude oil prices have decisively broken out of the rangebound trading they exhibited during the closing weeks of 2024, but now appear to have levelled out after five consecutive rises.
Brent fell by 0.3%, from USD 76.51/barrel to USD 76.30/barrel, while WTI was down 0.5%, from USD 73.96/barrel to USD 73.56/barrel.
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WTI, NBP, TTF and EU CO2 data from ICE. Henry Hub, JKM and API2 data from CME. Prices in USD/MMBtu based on exchange rates at last market close. All monetary values rounded to nearest whole cent/penny. Text and graphic copyright © Gas Strategies, all rights.
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