Natural gas futures in Europe continued their horizontal sawtooth patterns of the past month, with both TTF and NBP climbing for the second consecutive day but remaining rangebound.
TTF was up 1.9%, from USD 10.92/MMBtu on Tuesday to USD 11.13/MMBtu on Wednesday while NBP rose by 1.8%, from USD 10.35/MMBtu to USD 10.54/MMBtu.
Front-month TTF has been trading within a band of USD 10.54-11.42/MMBtu for a month while NBP has remained within USD 10.11-11.09/MMBtu.
Downside movement is constrained by ongoing concerns about the fate of Russian supply to Europe through Austria while the upside is constrained by high storage levels in the European Union. Some analysts now expect EU storage to be 90% full by August.
European coal prices moved in line with gas, continuing their loose correlation. API2 was up 1.4%, from USD 4.37/MMBtu to USD 4.43/MMBtu.
Carbon prices were up along with gas and coal. EU carbon dioxide emissions allowances rose by 2.6%, from EUR 67.08/tonne to EUR 68.85/tonne.
Oil prices softened a little after their recent days-long rally, with Brent down 0.3%, from USD 85.33/barrel on Tuesday, the highest month-ahead close since April, to USD 85.07/barrel on Wednesday.
Markets in the US were closed yesterday for Juneteenth National Independence Day – a public holiday that celebrates the ending of slavery in the US – so there is no data for Henry Hub, JKM or WTI futures.
Fossil fuels still four-fifths of fuel mix
The latest Statistical Review of World Energy from the Energy Institute, published today, reports that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise inexorably, despite the rapid growth of renewable energy.
Emissions were up 2% in 2023, breaking through the 40 Gigatonnes threshold for the first time, as global primary energy consumption hit a new record of 620 Exajoules, a 2% year-on-year increase.
Fossil fuels still account for more than four-fifths of the fuel mix, at 81.5%, down from 82% in 2022.
READ EU agrees Russia sanctions to crack down on LNG transshipments
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to impact gas consumption in Europe and its import mix. Demand was down 7% in 2023, after a 13% fall in 2022. Russia’s share of EU gas imports fell to 15%, down from 45% in 2021, with “LNG imports outflanking piped gas to Europe for a second year in a row”.
WTI, NBP, TTF and EU CO2 data from ICE. Henry Hub, JKM and API2 data from CME. Prices in USD/MMBtu based on exchange rates at last market close. All monetary values rounded to nearest whole cent/penny. Text and graphic copyright © Gas Strategies, all rights.
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